The airspace of NATO’s eastern flank has faced an unprecedented challenge over the past few days involving Ukrainian drones. Three EU member states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, recorded incursions of combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into their territory. Investigations confirmed that these were Ukrainian drones that lost their course due to Russian electronic warfare (EW) interference and navigation failures, creating an unintended threat to civilians in the region.
Estonia: Power plant strike and Ukrainian drones
The most significant incident occurred on the night of March 25 in Estonia. A drone crashed into a chimney at the Auvere power plant, causing an explosion. No casualties were reported. According to an investigation by the Internal Security Service (KAPO), the drone was part of a large-scale wave of approximately one hundred UAVs targeting the Russian port of Ust-Luga. Due to the port’s proximity to the Estonian border (roughly 30–35 kilometers), the stray drone entered Estonian airspace.
The situation was complicated by a failure in the public alert system. In response to the threat, Italian air patrol fighter jets were scrambled, and a nationwide emergency signal was sent to mobile phones. Prime Minister Kristen Michal later admitted that the SMS alerts should have been limited to residents of the border region of Ida-Virumaa, but authorities decided to prioritize caution. Meanwhile, the Estonian Ministry of the Interior stated that building a “drone wall” to completely seal off the sky from such incursions is physically impossible.
Latvia: Radar blind spots and a night explosion
Events in Latvia followed a similar pattern. National armed forces recorded two border violations. One drone remained in Latvian airspace for 24 minutes before departing, while a second crashed and exploded near the village of Dobrochina, just 15 kilometers from the Belarusian border. President Edgars Rinkēvičs confirmed the drones were Ukrainian.
A primary issue was that the drone that exploded was flying at an extremely low altitude of less than one kilometer. Consequently, main radar stations failed to detect it. By the time military personnel tracked the target and deployed a mobile interception group, the drone had already crashed. Authorities did not activate sirens for local residents because the incident developed too quickly. The military also had to assess risks in real-time, as Downing an armed drone over residential areas could have caused catastrophic damage.
Lithuania: Negotiations in Kyiv and the cost of defense cuts
Lithuania completed the regional picture. On March 23, a drone crossed the border undetected by radar and crashed into Lake Lavisas in the Varėna district. A day later, Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė officially confirmed that the UAV belonged to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It was intended for a nighttime strike on a target inside Russia but significantly deviated from its planned route.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas traveled to Kyiv today for a working visit. During a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Mykhailo Fedorov, the minister plans to discuss technical algorithms to minimize such incidents in the future. Kaunas noted that during the largest war in Europe, such incursions are expected and are not the fault of Ukraine. However, the minister criticized his country’s past defense policies. He stated these incidents are a direct signal to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank and admitted the situation would be different if Lithuania had allocated the necessary 4–5% of GDP to defense since 2020.
Beyond hypothetical past spending, this series of incidents demonstrates a new reality: in an era of total electronic warfare, national borders do not stop “blinded” combat machines. Traditional air defense systems on NATO’s eastern flank require urgent and radical modernization.
