US LNG to Meet 80% of EU Gas Imports by 2030

The European Union’s reliance on **US LNG** is projected to reach a critical 80% of total imports by 2030, raising alarms about a new era of **EU energy dependence**. According to a February 2026 report by the IEEFA, the EU is rapidly transforming from a Gazprom customer into a hostage of Donald Trump’s energy strategy. Despite ambitious plans for a green energy transition, Brussels is signing 20-year contracts worth billions of dollars, effectively replacing one dominant supplier with another. Experts cited by DW warn that Louisiana’s “freedom gas” costs Europeans significantly more, while the resulting geopolitical reliance on Washington threatens European sovereignty.

From Gazprom to Trump: A Chronicle of New Dependence

As recently as 2021, Russia supplied 50% of Europe’s gas needs. Since 2022, the EU has slashed Russian imports by two-thirds, but the United States immediately filled the resulting vacuum. While the U.S. did not export any gas at all before 2016, it captured 57% of the European LNG market by 2025. A trade agreement brokered by Trump in July 2025 virtually forces the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of American energy annually through 2028. IEEFA analysts describe this as a “geopolitical trap” that runs counter to Brussels’ goal of lowering energy prices.

Price Dictates: Why US LNG is the Most Expensive

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, a senior analyst at IEEFA, emphasizes that American gas is currently the most expensive resource for European companies. Despite the high costs, long-term contracts continue to proliferate.

• The German state-owned company SEFE and the joint venture Atlantic-See LNG have already signed 20-year agreements with the supplier Venture Global.
• Consequences: Energy infrastructure in Greece and Southeast Europe is being tailored exclusively for American exports. This makes real diversification through supplies from Qatar, Algeria, or Canada nearly impossible.

The Greenland Ultimatum and the Search for an Exit

Tensions between the allies escalated following Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on EU countries that do not support his claims to annex Greenland. This pressure has forced Brussels to reconsider the true cost of U.S. “energy dominance.” EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has called for an urgent review of the trade agreement and a renewed focus on domestic wind energy. Experts agree: true independence is not about changing the owner of the pipeline, but about developing internal generation and sourcing gas from a diverse range of global players to avoid a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis.

NEWSROOM IN notes that a comparison of gas costs for Europe in early 2026 illustrates why experts call American LNG “golden” for the European economy: