The projected EU population decline will see the bloc shrink by 53 million people, or 11.7%, by the year 2100, according to updated long-term demographic forecasts published by Eurostat. The statistical office predicts the most dramatic declines will occur in Latvia and Lithuania.
EU Population Decline Trends and the 2029 Peak
As of 2025, approximately 451.8 million people live in the European Union. The population is expected to grow slightly over the next few years, reaching a historical peak of 453.3 million by 2029.
After this peak, a steady demographic decline will begin. By the start of the next century, the number of residents is projected to fall to 398.8 million due to a lack of natural growth, as death rates consistently exceed birth rates.
Latvia and Lithuania Face Largest Reductions
The most radical population shrinkage is forecast for the Baltic states and Eastern Europe. Latvia is expected to see the largest overall decrease.
| Country | Projected Population Decline by 2100 |
| Latvia | –33.9% (from 1.86 million to 1.23 million) |
| Lithuania | –33.4% |
| Poland | –31.6% |
Significant demographic losses will also affect Southern and Eastern Europe. This group includes Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Romania, Italy, Hungary, and Portugal.
An Aging Europe
Beyond the total population drop, Europe faces a major transformation in its age structure. The bloc will deal with labor shortages and increased pressure on European pension systems and healthcare.
| Age Group | Share of Population (2025) | Share of Population (2100) | Trend |
| 0–19 years (children and youth) | 20% | 17% | 📉 Decrease |
| 20–64 years (working age) | 58% | 50% | 📉 Decrease |
| 65–79 years (retirees) | 16% | 17% | 📈 Increase |
| 80+ years (elderly) | 6% | 16% | 📈 Sharp Increase |
By 2100, the share of people over 80 will nearly triple, while the working-age population will shrink to just half of the total EU population.
Countries Expecting Growth
Despite the general decline, several European countries are projected to increase their population. These include Luxembourg, Iceland, Malta, Switzerland, and Ireland. However, this growth will be driven primarily by migration rather than high internal birth rates.
