The European Union is facing an escalating EU energy crisis defined by extreme economic uncertainty and surging energy prices as the conflict in Iran disrupts global supply chains and markets. Analysts worldwide suggest that the immediate future will be defined by deep pessimism and volatility across all sectors, with the defense industry being the notable exception.
The outlook for the European and global economies is now tied to the military developments in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of logistical routes due to the war in Iran have caused energy prices to spike, with oil prices now consistently exceeding $100 per barrel.
Impact on the European Union Budget
The financial consequences of the conflict are already being felt at the macro level. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that since the escalation in the Middle East, EU spending on fossil fuel imports has increased by more than €22–24 billion. Despite the higher costs, the physical volume of energy supplies to the bloc has not increased “by a single molecule.“
According to EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, Europe faces a difficult period that could last for months or years. The current crisis may prove as damaging as the energy shocks of 1973 and 2022 combined. “Since the start of the Middle East conflict, our fossil fuel import costs have risen by over €24 billion. That is more than €500 million a day. These costs are felt here and now, in homes and businesses across Europe. But the true consequences of this crisis will be long-term. It is evolving and unpredictable,” he said at a press conference.
The AccelerateEU Anti-Crisis Plan
To curb price hikes and prevent fuel shortages, the European Commission has developed the AccelerateEU plan. The strategy aims to protect the economy while maintaining climate goals and preventing internal competition for resources between EU member states.
The program includes the following measures:
- Optimizing the distribution of aviation fuel among member states.
- Reducing energy taxes.
- Strict coordination for filling gas storage facilities during the summer.
- Accelerating the electrification of the economy to eliminate long-term dependence on fossil fuels.
Consequences for Aviation and Tourism
The transport industry has been hit particularly hard. Since late February 2026, the cost of aviation fuel has risen by 60–120% depending on the region. This has caused the price of long-haul flights from Europe to increase by an average of more than $100 per passenger.
Airlines have begun cutting costs to compensate. Deutsche Lufthansa AG announced the cancellation of 20,000 unprofitable flights in Europe for the summer season to save fuel. Since the beginning of 2026, Lufthansa’s market capitalization has fallen by nearly 10% to €9.24 billion. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told the Associated Press that Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel remaining. If shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are not restored, airlines may soon face mass cancellations.
Mandatory Remote Work
EU authorities are proposing changes to labor schedules as an additional energy-saving measure. The European Commission will encourage and require employers to implement remote work. Under the plan, businesses must ensure employees work from home at least one day per week to reduce fuel consumption for transport and office heating.
“We must be honest: whether a supply crisis occurs depends entirely on the situation in the Middle East. However, we are doing everything possible to avoid this crisis or limit its impact,” the EU Energy Commissioner concluded.
