- Short Facts:
Budget Battle: Dispute over EU’s 2021-2027 budget, seeking extra €19 billion for joint debt, €15 billion for migration, facing opposition.
Expansion Dispute: Hungary’s disagreement with Ukraine’s EU plans raises talks of Hungary leaving, adding to broader disputes on expansion.
On the 14th and 15th of December, Brussels is set to host the EU Council summit, drawing exceptional attention due to an agenda that could shape the course of the European Union. The summit, attended by political leaders from EU member countries and those aspiring to join, is seen as pivotal for the very existence of the EU. Seven main topics dominate the summit agenda:
Ukraine: Addressing the Ongoing Conflict
Leaders will engage in discussions regarding the latest developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and explore avenues for supporting the Ukrainian people.
Disagreements on Support
Notably, EU countries find themselves at odds regarding the cost of support. The previous EU Council summit, held on October 26-27, witnessed deliberations on the European Commission’s request for an additional €66 billion in the long-term budget for 2021-2027. This includes a promised €50 billion tranche for Ukraine, comprising €17 billion in grants and €33 billion in loans.
However, a decision on this request was deferred to the upcoming December summit. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico emerged as vocal opponents of extending aid to Ukraine. Their arguments centered on Ukraine’s perceived corruption, the lack of tangible results from prior aid, and skepticism about Ukraine’s ability to overcome Russia.
NEWSROOM IN notes that Hungary adamantly opposes initiating talks with Ukraine regarding EU membership.
Criticism of Hungary’s Stance
The stance of Hungary, and now Slovakia, on Ukraine has faced sharp criticism from other EU member states. Critics, both within and outside the EU, have branded Orbán and his party’s policies as pro-Putin and pro-Russian.
Despite this criticism, just ahead of the summit on December 13, the European Commission released 10.2 billion euros for Hungary from the Welfare Fund. These funds, previously frozen due to EU concerns about human rights violations, rule of law breaches, and potential corruption schemes, provoked strong reactions from MEPs and EU politicians supporting Ukraine.
Věra Jourová, the Vice-President of the Commission for Values and Transparency, insisted that the aid’s release was coincidental with the European Council but faced skepticism. Many view this move as an attempt to appease Orbán before the summit, especially considering his recent threats to block aid to Ukraine and the initiation of EU accession talks.
This action may also be seen as a gesture to encourage Hungary to ratify Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Sweden, an EU member, faces delays in this process, causing concern among its EU and NATO allies.
Middle East Dilemma: Varied Opinions on Israel’s Conflict
Differences on Israel’s Response to Terrorism
Agreement is hard to find within the EU on Israel’s actions against Palestinian terrorists. While all member countries condemned the tragic events of October 7, subsequent views varied. Some leaders stand by Israel, saying it has the right to counter terrorists but should do so humanely. Others accuse Israel of being too rigid in its defense against terrorists.
Adding to the complexity, on December 5, Ilva Johansson, the Commissioner for Home Affairs of the European Union, warned member countries about a significant terrorist threat during the Christmas holidays. She linked the heightened risk to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas terrorists in the Middle East.
EU Expansion Plans: Striving for Unity Amid Disagreements
Disputes on EU Expansion
Leaders will discuss EU enlargement policy, focusing on the stabilisation and association process and future steps. EU Council President Charles Michel’s plan to expand the EU to 30 countries by 2030, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine, sparks differing opinions.
Ukrainian Issue Sparks Debate
The Ukrainian question is a point of contention, with most EU countries open to Ukraine’s future EU membership. However, Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, echoing Kremlin narratives, insists on removing the Ukrainian issue from the EU’s agenda. This has led to talks about Hungary potentially leaving the EU, with even European diplomacy head Josep Borrell suggesting Hungary’s departure.
The clash extends beyond Ukraine, involving Hungary’s perceived alignment with Putin’s Russia. This raises serious concerns about the EU’s security and shared human values, prompting debates about Hungary’s continued EU membership.
Treaty Changes and Budget Disputes
Leaders will also address proposed changes to the EU’s fundamental treaties. The European Parliament’s endorsement of amendments on November 22, affecting the Treaty on European Union (TEU) and Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), has sparked discussions. This includes abandoning the principle of unanimous decision-making in the EU Council on crucial matters and reducing the European Commission’s size to 15 people.
EU’s long-term budget for 2021-2027
Discussions on the budget increase have been ongoing for several months. The European Commission seeks additional funds for various purposes, including:
- €19 billion to cover the cost of repaying the EU’s joint debt,
- €15 billion to fight illegal migration,
- €10 billion to replenish existing funds: InvestEU (€5 billion), the Innovation Fund (€3 billion), the European Defence Fund (€1.5 billion), and the European Innovation Council (€500 million),
- €3 billion for contingencies,
- €1.9 billion for increased administrative costs (salaries and other EU mechanisms).
However, donor countries like Germany, France, Belgium, Sweden, and the Netherlands oppose additional contributions, deeming the Commission’s request unreasonable.
Foreign Relations: Ongoing Struggles over Sanctions
Leaders will also discuss foreign policy, specifically the 12th package of sanctions against Russia. Despite the European Commission’s announcement several months ago, an agreement on these sanctions remains elusive.