President Alar Karis has urged Europe to prepare for the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, even as most Estonian politicians focus on the threat of expanded aggression. In an interview with the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, Karis stated that the war could end suddenly. He argued that EU countries must develop a response plan and a model for post-war interaction with Russia now, regardless of when a ceasefire actually occurs.
NEWSROOM IN provides a summary of the interview.
President Alar Karis: Dialogue and domestic scandal
The call to prepare for dialogue with Moscow sparked a domestic political storm in Estonia, where official foreign policy strictly excludes negotiations with the aggressor state. Karis clarified his position, stating that the aggressor must first be stopped and Russia must change before communication can resume. Only then can relations be reviewed. He cited Cold War-era Finland as an example of a country that combined military readiness with diplomatic dialogue, though he noted he was not suggesting a direct copy of that model.
EU special envoy and President Alar Karis
Karis supports appointing an EU special envoy for Russia to prevent major global powers from deciding the future world order without consulting smaller nations. This diplomat would begin preparations for the post-war period immediately. The president emphasized that countries like Estonia and Finland have contributed significantly to supporting Ukraine and must have a say in the settlement, which requires active participation in discussions.
Investor fear and President Alar Karis response
A significant portion of the interview addressed fears that the war might expand to the Baltic states. Karis believes the image of Estonia as the “next target” is being artificially fueled by those seeking to cause economic and reputational damage. This fear is already deterring foreign investors. Recently, an international girls’ football tournament in Tallinn had to be canceled because teams refused to travel to the region.
The president noted that foreigners often project their own uncertainty and fear of the unknown onto Estonia, particularly following news of suspicious drones in Germany and Denmark. In contrast, he said Estonians are “perfectly familiar” with living next to Russia.
President Alar Karis on Estonia defense spending
In 2026, Estonia will invest over two billion euros in national defense, exceeding 5% of its GDP. Karis denied that this spending is driven by an increased sense of danger. He pointed out that before World War II, the country spent over 20% of its GDP on defense, but at that time, it had no allies.
Regarding the ability of countries to adapt to current realities, Karis recalled a conversation from five years ago when Finnish leadership refused to join NATO because the public did not support it. “In just five months, public opinion changed dramatically—the situation turned 180 degrees,” Karis said.
