War has engulfed the Middle East, leading to a total Strait of Hormuz blockade following massive U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The death of Ali Khamenei and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks have turned the planet’s primary “fuel artery” into a no-go zone. As hundreds of oil and LNG tankers wait in the Persian Gulf, experts predict a global market collapse: OPEC+ nations lack the reserves to replace the blocked supplies or halt the price surge.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade: 20% of Global Oil Trapped
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has officially banned shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman is a critical global transit point, handling approximately 20% of the world’s oil and massive volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with around 82.6 million tons of LNG passing through the route annually.
The consequences of the blockade were immediate. The first victim was the Palau-flagged tanker Skylight, which was carrying oil from Oman. According to the Oman Maritime Security Center, the vessel came under Iranian attack directly within the strait.
Major Japanese carriers have already announced the suspension of voyages through the danger zone. According to MarineTraffic data, more than 150 oil and LNG tankers have anchored in the open waters of the Persian Gulf, hesitating to enter the strait, while dozens more have gathered on the opposite side in the Arabian Sea.
OPEC+ Helpless Amid Escalation
Ironically, just days before hostilities began, OPEC+ countries—including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan—agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April 2026. The decision was based on “stable economic prospects” that vanished overnight.
Analysts believe OPEC+ lacks the tools to mitigate the coming price shock, as noted by The Guardian.
“Spare capacity is concentrated almost exclusively in Saudi Arabia; other countries are working at their limits. A production increase would be a drop in the bucket compared to the volumes the world is losing due to the strait’s closure,” predicts Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets.
Today, OPEC+ nations held a virtual meeting to review global market conditions and agreed to a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day. “This adjustment will be implemented in April 2026, as detailed in the table below. 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned partially or fully depending on changing market conditions and gradually,” the organization stated in a press release.
Forecast for Market Opening
The market is holding its breath for Monday. Traders are preparing for a “vertical” surge in quotes. The physical absence of oil at destination ports due to the blocked routes makes any agreements on production quotas meaningless: oil may be extracted, but it cannot be delivered.
Echoes of Hormuz in Europe: Why Every European Will Pay for the War
While Washington and Tehran exchange threats, panic is mounting in European capitals. The pockets of ordinary Europeans, already strained by inflation and foreign aid expenditures, risk being emptied further.
After moving away from Russian pipelines, Europe staked its energy security on Qatari LNG (liquefied natural gas) as a “lifeline.” The problem is that all of this gas passes through the now-blocked Strait of Hormuz.
Experts predict that the cost of gas on European exchanges could triple on Monday—rising from the current 30€ to 90€ per MWh.
Europe will be forced into a price war with Asia for every remaining tanker on the market. This means governments will once again have to drain billions from budgets for subsidies to keep heating and electricity bills manageable for citizens. According to recent energy market reports, a simple trip to the gas station may soon claim the “last cent” from consumers’ wallets.
