The political landscape in Ukraine is beginning to shift around the topic of Ukrainian Elections. US President Donald Trump, who aims to conclude the war, has ramped up discussion regarding the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and the necessity of holding elections, which were suspended under martial law.
Kyiv’s response was immediate. Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his readiness to proceed but issued a counter-condition to Washington and Brussels: «I am ready for elections. Furthermore, I am asking the US, possibly with the Europeans, to provide security guarantees for holding the elections. If that happens, Ukraine will be ready to hold elections in the next 60–90 days; I personally have the will to do so.»
The logic of the Ukrainian leader is clear. It is impossible to organize a nationwide vote without external protection in a country where air raid sirens sound daily, active fighting continues, and millions of voters are scattered globally as refugees.
Public opinion polls indicate that the majority of Ukrainians oppose holding elections during the war. According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, approximately 63% of respondents believe elections should only take place after the war ends. Meanwhile, 22% support holding elections after a ceasefire is implemented with security guarantees, and 12% support the idea of elections during wartime.
The upcoming vote was slated to be the eighth election in the history of independent Ukraine, but the war placed democracy on hold. Now, there is a push to lift this pause.
The Paradox of the “Race Without Runners”
The situation, however, appears paradoxical: the country is discussing the ratings of candidates who officially do not exist. Currently, none of the top politicians have formally announced their intention to run.
Back in September of this year, Volodymyr Zelensky himself stated that a second term was not his goal and that he was prepared not to seek re-election. Meanwhile, Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, who features prominently in the polls, has never publicly stated any political ambitions.
Nevertheless, sociological studies are already modeling a contest whose results may be unwelcome news for Bankova (the Presidential Administration).
The Runoff: Numbers Against the Incumbent Power
Late 2025 sociology paints a tense electoral picture. According to a SOCIS poll (dated November 21, 2025), Volodymyr Zelensky leads the first round with 30.1%, but Valerii Zaluzhny is right behind him with 28.9%. The remaining candidates (Poroshenko — 7.2%, Budanov — 5%, Razumkov — 4.4%, Tymoshenko — 3.9%) lag significantly.
Data from the “First Rating System” (commissioned by American Political Services, dated October 13, 2025) confirms this trend: Zelensky — 30.3%, Zaluzhny — 28.5%. Here, Kyrylo Budanov shows a higher result — 10.1%, surpassing Poroshenko (7.6%) and Tymoshenko (4.9%).
However, the main threat to the current government lies in modeling the runoff scenario. This is where the effect of negative ratings and the consolidation of protest voters come into play.
Scenario #1: Zelensky vs. Zaluzhny This is the most dangerous scenario for Bankova. According to SOCIS data, Valerii Zaluzhny secures a landslide victory, capturing 49.5% against Volodymyr Zelensky’s 26%. American Political Services data confirms the gap: Zaluzhny — 42.6%, Zelensky — 26.3%.
Scenario #2: Zelensky vs. Budanov Even in a confrontation with the intelligence chief, the incumbent president’s position is shaky. According to SOCIS, Kyrylo Budanov wins with 37.1% against Zelensky’s 30.3%. The American Political Services poll shows a true “neck and neck” race here: Budanov — 33%, Zelensky — 32.5%.
The Washington Factor: A Country That Looks West
These figures are important not just in themselves, but within the context of geopolitics. Ukraine is a distinctly America-centric state. While claiming that the president here is “appointed” by Washington would be an exaggeration, the opinion of American partners is critically important for the local political elite. And it appears that these Ukrainian ratings are being studied very closely in the US.
In March of this year, Politico claimed, citing four high-ranking officials close to the US President, that Americans had secretly met and discussed the potential holding of presidential elections with Batkivshchyna party leader Yulia Tymoshenko, as well as members of former President Petro Poroshenko’s party. According to the publication’s sources, Trump’s inner circle believes that incumbent President Volodymyr Zelensky would not be able to win the election, but Tymoshenko and Poroshenko might.
Yulia Tymoshenko, who has served twice as Ukraine’s Prime Minister, did not confirm the Politico information but noted that her team is negotiating with all allies “who can secure a just peace as quickly as possible.” She emphasized that before the war ends, “holding elections in Ukraine is ruled out.”
The Geopolitical Weight of Ukrainian Elections
Be that as it may, if the US and EU ultimately provide the guarantees, Ukraine faces the most unpredictable campaign in its history, where the incumbent president’s main rivals will be generals who are silent about their ambitions and political veterans who have secured the interest of Western partners.
