The UN Secretary-General election race has begun as António Guterres prepares to step down. Guterres has led the United Nations since 2017, and his second term concludes at the end of this year.
The stakes in the current race are high. The next leader must act as a mediator during deep global crises and manage a global crisis of trust in the international bureaucracy model.
Election Procedure and the Role of the Security Council
Earlier this year, member states were invited to nominate candidates by April 1, 2026. The General Assembly will hold the first public dialogues with contenders in late April.
The most critical phase involves closed consultations within the UN Security Council. This is where the fate of candidates is decided. The five permanent members—China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US—play a decisive role because each holds veto power and can block any contender.
While the General Assembly is expected to formally confirm the winner in late 2026, the actual selection and consensus usually occur between August and October.
Official Candidates for the UN Secretary-General Election
Four candidates have been officially nominated for the post of UN chief so far:
- Michelle Bachelet (Chile): former president of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (2018–2022).
- Rafael Grossi (Argentina): current Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
- Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica): head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
- Macky Sall (Senegal): former president of Senegal.
Unwritten Rules: Geography and Gender
Two major informal factors influence the selection process. First, citizens of the five permanent Security Council members traditionally do not run for the post.
Second, there is an informal geographic rotation. Three of the current candidates represent Latin America, a region the international community considers “next in line” for the position.
Gender is also a focus of attention. In the UN’s eight-decade history, nine men have held the post. Before Guterres, these were Ban Ki-moon, Kofi Annan, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, Kurt Waldheim, U Thant, Dag Hammarskjöld, and Trygve Lie. Member states are increasingly calling for the selection of a woman. However, gender is not a formal criterion. The final decision depends entirely on whether a divided Security Council—facing crises in Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran—can reach a consensus.
Who is the Favorite: An Analytical Forecast
Based on the current geopolitical landscape and the ability to avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members, NEWSROOM IN identifies Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) as the leading candidate.
Her position is supported by a combination of three factors:
- She represents Latin America, fulfilling the geographic rotation.
- She is a woman, satisfying the demand for gender renewal.
- Political compromise. Unlike Michelle Bachelet, whose work as Human Rights Commissioner drew sharp criticism from the West, China, and Russia, Grynspan has a reputation as a pragmatic negotiator. As head of UNCTAD, she played a key role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, proving her ability to maintain dialogue with Moscow, Kyiv, Ankara, and Western capitals simultaneously.
The second major candidate is Rafael Grossi. His work at the IAEA during nuclear crises—including the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Ukraine and Iran’s nuclear program—has made him one of the world’s most recognizable diplomats, respected by all Security Council members. However, because he is a man, he remains a “number two” candidate amid massive pressure to elect the first female Secretary-General.