The Belarusian Ministry of Defense seems to have decided to redefine the very concept of “military threat.” As part of the upcoming amendments to the Law on Martial Law, which have already been submitted to parliament, the army will gain new and quite unexpected grounds for intervention. Now, military personnel are instructed to act not only in the event of an external invasion but also in the case of Alexander Lukashenko’s death.
Alexander Lukashenko’s Death: A New Military Threat in Belarus
The new bill appeared on the eve of the 5th anniversary of the large-scale protest events of August 2020, which is likely no coincidence. These new amendments are essentially designed to protect the system from a repeat of similar events. According to the bill, the death of Alexander Lukashenko will be considered one of the grounds for introducing martial law. As reported by “Minskaya Pravda”, this is part of a “conditional color revolution scenario” aimed at preventing “the seizure of power” and allowing the army to intervene in the country’s internal affairs. According to the new provisions, the death of Alexander Lukashenko will be considered one of the grounds for introducing martial law.
Such an expansion of powers, according to the authors of the law, will allow the Armed Forces of Belarus to implement “preventive measures to neutralize military threats” and even participate “in creating favorable conditions in the information space.” In other words, the army will now be able not only to deter enemies at the border but also to monitor internal stability and, possibly, news feeds.
External Threats: From the Kalinouski Regiment to Strikes on Russia
External threats have also not been overlooked. The new list of potential dangers has also been expanded. Now, martial law can be introduced due to:
⇝ Armed formations crossing the border, which, for example, includes the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment — a Belarusian combat formation within the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
⇝ Deployment of foreign formations near the border.
⇝ Escalation of armed conflict on the territory of an ally — the Russian Federation, including infrastructure attacks.
The last point is the most notable. According to the amendments, Belarus will gain the right to introduce martial law even if the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike military facilities on Russian territory, which undoubtedly significantly expands the range of reasons for entering a war.
Coalition War and Forecasts
The concept of “coalition war” is also introduced — in the event of an attack on the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) or the Union State of Belarus and Russia by a “coalition of hostile countries.”
The amendments, developed by the Ministry of Defense, have already been submitted by the Council of Ministers to parliament, where they are expected to pass without significant debate.
NEWSROOM IN notes:
On August 9, 2020, Belarus elected a new president amidst strong opposition from forces led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya against Lukashenko’s team.
We will never know the true results of those elections, but according to official data, Lukashenko received 80.1% of the votes. Independent organizations “Golos” (Voice), “Zubr” (Bison), and the “Chestnye Lyudi” (Honest People) initiative, which conducted their own vote counts and documented violations at all polling stations, proved that Tsikhanouskaya defeated Lukashenko in the first round of the presidential elections. She garnered 56% of the votes (3.0 million) against Lukashenko’s 36% (1.8 million), with other candidates receiving 10% (0.5 million).
After the announcement of the falsified presidential election results, mass protests began in Belarus. People demanded the declaration of real results, new and fair elections, and the release of political prisoners. According to UN data for 2022, approximately 13,500 people, including 700 children, were arrested during the five days of protests following the August 2020 presidential elections in Belarus. Many of those detained were subjected to prolonged beatings with batons in transport, police departments, and pre-trial detention centers. Security forces also used water cannons, rubber bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades against peaceful protesters.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was forced to leave for Lithuania. Thousands of people who participated in the protests also left the country due to the threat of repression. By the end of 2021, 969 people were held in Belarusian prisons on politically motivated charges. This number has only continued to grow. According to the latest data, there are approximately 1,500 political prisoners in Belarus. Many of them have been sentenced to long prison terms for participating in protests against the Lukashenko regime or for criticizing the authorities. Little is known about the fate of many political prisoners, as they are isolated from communication with other inmates and relatives. The recent fortunate release of 14 political prisoners, among whom was the husband of the Belarusian opposition leader, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, provided rare and disturbing details about the lives of political prisoners in jails. Their release, it should be noted, was made possible thanks to the efforts of U.S. diplomats and Donald Trump.
