U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a readiness for Iran negotiations, yet recent military strikes have left few decision-makers remaining in the Iranian capital. While officials like Ali Larijani threaten to “burn the hearts” of their enemies, Iranian society stands on the brink of a massive internal explosion. Here is an analysis of the potential scenarios for Iran’s future.
The U.S. Position on Iran Negotiations
In an interview with Axios, President Donald Trump commented on the joint military operation against Iran with Israel, describing his strategy in blunt terms: “I can go the long way and take full control, or finish everything in two or three days and tell the Iranians, ‘See you in a few years if you start rebuilding your nuclear program again.'”
However, in a later conversation with The Atlantic, his rhetoric shifted toward a more “peacemaking” tone. Trump claimed that Iranian leaders themselves want a dialogue and that he has agreed to it. The only problem, as the president admitted, is that “most of the people we were negotiating with in recent weeks are already dead” as a result of the massive strikes.
Who Is Left in the “Iranian Game”?
The question now is who will represent Iran in any potential negotiations. Based on statements from surviving regime officials, Iran appears more interested in revenge than dialogue. Power in the country has transitioned to a temporary collective body.
☛ Masoud Pezeshkian (President) — The “face of the regime” for domestic consumption. He has vowed to continue the path of the Imam and strike the enemy. However, under wartime conditions, real power is flowing away from him and toward the security forces.
☛ Ali Larijani (Secretary of the Security Council) — A key figure in the Council. A seasoned negotiator and former Speaker of Parliament, Larijani was reportedly tasked by Khamenei as early as January to “ensure the survival of the Republic.” Larijani is the “brain” of Iran currently managing the military response. His rhetoric about “burning the hearts” of enemies is a position of strength intended to maintain control over the army and the IRGC, rather than a starting point for a negotiator.
☛ Alireza Arafi (Supreme Cleric) — A figure providing religious legitimacy to the temporary government. While unlikely to participate directly in talks with Trump, no deal would hold value in the eyes of conservative Iranians without his approval.
Who Can Trump Actually Talk To?
Trump (and Netanyahu) are not looking for a dialogue partner but for someone to sign a confession of defeat. Based on public statements, four scenarios are possible for the U.S. administration:
➤ Scenario: “Military Junta”
If Larijani and IRGC generals realize the regime is on the verge of total physical destruction, they may agree to a “surrender deal” that Trump would likely frame as the “Greatest Agreement in History.” Larijani is the only figure who understands the Western mentality and knows how to bargain. However, whether he would reconcile with those he claims have “burned the heart of the people” remains a significant question.
➤ Scenario: “Monologue via Intermediaries”
Negotiations are most likely to proceed through Oman or Qatar. Trump would dictate terms, while Larijani would attempt to bargain for the survival of the remaining regime elite.
➤ Scenario: “Persian Spring 2.0”
This is the most logical yet most unpredictable scenario. If the allies “burned the heart” of the regime by eliminating Khamenei, they removed the central pillar holding together Iran’s structure of fear. Khamenei was not just a politician; he was seen as the “representative of God.” For Iranian youth, figures like Larijani or Pezeshkian are merely officials in turbans, lacking both authority and charisma.
Iran’s security structures are designed to follow orders from the top. If the leadership is disoriented or physically eliminated, lower-level police and military units may refuse to fire on their own people. Furthermore, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts Iran. When water stops running and food disappears from shops, the fear of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) will likely lose out to the instinct for survival.
If the “street” wins, Trump finds himself in a situation he is familiar with as a businessman: “buying assets out of bankruptcy.” But who will act as the “trustee”?
- Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi: The son of the last Shah, currently living in the U.S. For Trump, he is a “predictable” partner — secular, pro-Western, and ready to recognize Israel. The downside is his long absence from the country; the “street” may not want to trade one old man for another.
- “National Salvation Council” (Technocrats): A group of former ministers and mayors who have not stained themselves with blood. They could reach out to Trump via Paris (given the activity of President Macron and the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle) and offer complete denuclearization in exchange for lifting sanctions within those same “two or three days.”
- “Army Field Commanders: If the IRGC is crushed, army generals might seize power to save the country from collapse. Trump enjoys talking to “strongmen,” and a transitional military dictatorship could be his most convenient option for a “quick deal.”
➤ Risk Scenario: The “Somalization” of Iran
Larijani has frequently warned of the “dismemberment of Iran,” claiming it is a goal of Israel (though Jerusalem has not said this publicly). If the central government collapses, peripheral regions like Kurdistan or Baluchistan may declare independence. For Trump, this is a nightmare: instead of one deal with one leader, he would have to manage “Mad Max” style chaos across a vast territory.
Ultimately, Trump wants to “finish everything fast.” Revolution is long and messy. Most likely, the U.S. will search for “their own Larijani” within the system — someone ready to betray the ideals of the Islamic Republic to save their own skin and receive a mandate to rule from Washington.
