A significant event unfolded at an international forecasting competition in San Francisco: the algorithm developed by British startup ManticAI secured 8th place, outperforming dozens of experienced human analysts. This marked a dramatic improvement from its 300th position in 2024 and has prompted experts to ponder whether artificial intelligence is poised to become the world’s leading predictor in the near future. This development was reported by Gianluca Riccio, Creative Director at Melancia adv, a copywriter and journalist who is also part of the Italian Institute for the Future, the World Future Society, H+, and heads the publication Futuroprossimo.it.
The Power of Algorithms Versus the Human Mind
The competition challenged participants with dozens of complex tasks, ranging from predicting election results to estimating the scale of wildfires. ManticAI’s achievement, spearheaded by a former Google researcher, sent a clear signal across the industry. While humans currently retain an edge over machines in highly complex forecasting, organizers believe that algorithms could catch up to, and even surpass, top human experts as early as 2029.
ManticAI’s Unique Forecasting Algorithms
ManticAI’s success stems from its unique methodology. The system deconstructs complex problems into smaller components and leverages multiple AI models simultaneously, including those from OpenAI, Google, and DeepSeek. This approach allows it to analyze immense datasets, identify historical parallels, and simulate various scenarios. Consequently, its predictions frequently diverge from human “groupthink,” a divergence that co-founder Toby Shevlein highlights as a key advantage.
The Future Lies in Collaboration
Despite this impressive progress, humans still maintain a lead in tasks that require intuition and unconventional thinking. However, according to Canadian forecaster Luboš Saloka, the future lies in synergy: “If you can’t beat them, join them.”
Experts generally agree that the future of forecasting will involve close collaboration between humans and AI. Algorithms are expected to excel at tasks demanding large-scale data analysis (such as inflation calculation), while humans will contribute decision-making based on intuition and experience, especially when navigating uncertain conditions.
