Speeches delivered at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos served as a clear epitaph for the Rules-Based Order. Leaders from France, Canada, and the European Union were unanimous: the previous global deal is dead. While European officials called for building a new fortress, others indicated a path of flexible survival.
The Collective Diagnosis: Illusions Are Over
Western leaders have abandoned diplomatic politeness in 2026, delivering significantly harsher rhetoric than in previous years. French President Emmanuel Macron and former Canadian Prime Prime Minister Mark Carney gave extremely stark assessments of the current global situation, declaring that the “honeymoon” of globalization is officially over.
Macron stated that the world has entered a “period of instability,” marked by a record number of wars and direct challenges to democracies from autocracies. Carney went even further, effectively announcing the death of the international order itself: “That deal doesn’t work anymore.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen joined this chorus. Her verdict was that the world has changed forever, and nostalgia for the old order is useless. Europe critically needs a “new form of independence” and must act immediately.
Macron and Von der Leyen: Blueprints for ‘Fortress Europe’
This is where the true divergence began. While Macron acted as the ideologue for a new, strong Europe, Ursula von der Leyen presented a concrete plan for building this fortress—a strategy of a great power unwilling to accept the loss of influence.
Macron’s vision, simplified, is this: Europe is squeezed between aggressive autocracies and intense competition between the US and China. The European response must be strategic autonomy, dirigisme (state economic guidance), and economic nationalism. His triad—“protection, simplification, investment”—means the state must safeguard the market and inject billions into strategic sectors. Von der Leyen agreed, noting that Brussels is already implementing this plan and outlined three key areas:
☛ Trade Expansion: Europe aims to claim growing markets. Von der Leyen confirmed the signing of a historic deal with Mercosur and announced the “mother of all deals” with India. This represents an attempt to create Europe’s own economic sphere of influence.
☛ Internal Mobilization (EU Inc.): To compete with global giants, Europe needs a truly unified single market. The proposal is to create a “28th regime”—a single company structure for the entire EU with registration taking only 48 hours. This addresses Macron’s call for “simplification,” alongside establishing a Capital Markets Union and an Energy Union to ensure independence from external shocks.
☛ War Economy: Defense is becoming a priority. Spending is increasing to €800 billion, and Europe is preparing its own security strategy, including investments in Greenland and creating its own icebreaker fleet. Brussels is ready to respond harshly even to allies when tariffs and security are at stake.
Carney: The Realism of a Middle Power
Against the backdrop of this European mobilization, Canada’s position appears distinct. Mark Carney views the world from the perspective of a “middle power” that cannot dictate global rules.
Carney openly rejects the “naive multilateral approach” of the past, seeing the future in “values-based realism.” Instead of trying to save failing global institutions, Canada will act precisely, building flexible, situational coalitions with partners whose interests align in the here and now.
This marks a shift away from global idealism toward hard pragmatism. Canada signals: we no longer rely on the old security umbrella; we will maneuver and make deals to survive in a world of predators.
The Future of the Rules-Based Order and Western Unity
Ultimately, Davos 2026 revealed three faces of the adapting West:
- Macron: “The world is collapsing! We must unite and build a powerful European fortress!”
- Von der Leyen: “Here are the blueprints for the fortress: a single market, a war economy, and trade expansion. We are starting construction immediately and are ready to fight back.”
- Carney: “The old world has collapsed. It is too late and too expensive to build fortresses. We will be flexible, maneuver, and seek advantage wherever possible.”
All leaders are correct in their diagnosis. However, their strategies demonstrate that a unified West no longer exists. There are now players of varying weight, each choosing their own path to survival in an era of global chaos.
